Premium subscribers have received updates on both the storm tonight and an official forecast for the Wednesday night and Thursday storm, which you can access by subscribing here. However, a free portion of the forecast for the region has been issued below, with the free forecast for the Wednesday night/Thursday storm being released tomorrow:
Snow is now falling right on track across the region, and the general forecast as a whole remains the same for the evening with 1-3 inches of snow. The HRRR supports the going forecast with a mix of sleet moving into western areas as early as 7:30 PM and overspreading the entire region by 8 or 8:30 PM. This gives most areas only another 2-3 hours of snow, and as I don’t see snowfall rates intensifying to more than an inch per hour, I would be hard-pressed to see any snowfall accumulations over 3 or 4 inches. The going forecast for 1-3 inches of snow thus holds, though isolated areas where the changeover holds off briefly when the heaviest precipitation moves in could see slightly more than 3 inches, so I’ll mention that isolated amounts to 4 inches are possible, especially if the sleet tries to significantly accumulate. Most snow as indicated on radar looks to fall at around half an inch per hour, though at the tail end we could see snowfall rates of an inch per hour right before the changeover to sleet and then freezing rain. Compaction should allow some of the snowfall accumulations to slightly shrink, which is the other region for these lower accumulations; measurements taken at the end of the storm should be slightly lower than those taken before the changeover to sleet as sleet compresses the snow together.
So I’ll run through what the HRRR shows. The latest run is slightly colder, showing all snow continuing through 7 PM with rates of .5-1 inch per hour, as seen here. By 8 PM, however, the entire region is over to sleet with some freezing rain working its way in, as seen here. Freezing rain takes over by 9 PM and dominates through 11 PM with freezing drizzle continuing inland a little after as well, as seen here. Then we warm and turn to plain rain overnight, but temperatures stay fairly close to freezing. By 6 AM, the HRRR is quite impressive with warming, showing 40s trying to work their way into the region inland with the coast still in the upper 30s, as seen here.
Thus, travel between 7 and 11 PM tonight is most dangerous, but travel is already going downhill now with that heaviest snow trying to move in. However, travel conditions improve through the night, and I expect minimal if any impacts remaining for the morning commute tomorrow. Be sure to stay tuned for the latest.