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TIMING: Most models agree that light rain/snow will be starting across the area from south to north between 10 AM and 1 PM. Please note that especially at the coast, it is likely to start as light rain with surface temperatures in the upper 30s and temperatures aloft close to freezing as well. As the heavier precipitation moves in, sometime between 1 and 4 PM the entire region looks likely to go over to moderate snow and begin to stick as temperatures drop into the mid and low 30s. Inland snow will stick sooner, especially as it is slightly colder aloft and there is more cold air to pull down. Snow should mix with sleet between 4 and 7 PM at the coast and between 5 and 8 PM inland. Snow will also be heaviest across the entire region from 4-8 PM. Rain comes in at the coast around 7 PM, while freezing rain is mixing in further inland by 8 PM creating a true mess with the evening commute. Light rain continues at the coast through the night, while around and north of I-84 freezing rain could continue into early Wednesday morning before temperatures finally rise significantly above freezing by 7 or 8 AM Wednesday. Rain then continues through the day on Wednesday.
ACCUMULATIONS: Coastal areas are expected to see a coating to 2 inches of snow. Though up to .3-.4 inches of liquid will fall as wintry precipitation, some may be sleet and the initial snowfall may struggle to stick. 2 inches of heavy, wet, slushy snow will still be possible through around 5 or 6 PM in some coastal areas, which will be enough to cause trouble. Inland, I am expecting more like 1-3 inches of snow, as almost all guidance shows enough cold air and precipitation for at least an inch of snow, and some guidance shows the potential for more. Isolated regions of 4 inches of snow are possible where temperatures both at the surface and aloft are the coldest, but generally it looks like around 3 inches should be the cap. A glaze of ice is possible in patchy regions at the coast, and up to a tenth of an inch of ice around or slightly north of I-84 is possible with surface temperatures right around freezing. North of Fairfield and New Haven Counties we could actually see more significant icing where the cold air traps.
An additional update will come later this evening should the forecast significantly shift.