MIDNIGHT FINAL UPDATE

This will be the final update for the evening with not too much new to cover.  The RAP weather model continues to show that the majority of mixing will take place between noon and 1 PM at the immediate coast, between 1 and 2 PM removed from the immediate coast, and between 2 and 3 PM further inland.  There may be small run to run variations but we are getting into a better range with the weather model and this fits in well with some of the other weather models so I am very tempted to believe it.

We will be looking at very heavy snow tomorrow morning, and as I have said many times, after 7 AM or so roads will be so treacherous that it is advisable to stay home unless it is an absolute emergency.  Inland there will be no good time to drive tomorrow, and even at the immediate coast try and avoid traveling until the evening if you have to travel at all.  If it is below freezing at any point tomorrow it will be very likely that the roads will be covered in sheets of ice, and high temperatures only look to get to 34-35 degrees, so a few degrees variation between towns and with some elevation could make all the difference.  That’s why all these subtle trends and moves with this storm will make such a significant difference.

Tomorrow the entire day will be spent tracking the back end banding from the storm that will be moving through the area past 11 PM or midnight.  Bringing 2-4 inches of snow through 4 or 5 AM is very likely to delay schools, and it is very likely that I will be forecasting widespread school delays for Friday tomorrow.  Should the storm over perform and many areas see 10-12+ inches of snow, then it is possible that schools will have to close as well.  It’s just too early to say for sure as so much depends on exactly when the turnover to rain happens and if temperatures tomorrow get above freezing to let some snow/ice melt before Friday.  I’ll be watching it very closely and updating throughout the day whenever I can.

That’s really it from here.  The entire forecast remains the same.  I see 6-12 inches of snow at the coast and 8-14 inches inland.  That’s been the forecast from the beginning and at this point I don’t want to change it.  This storm has bounced around a lot and there were many crazy model runs, but I am glad I stuck with my original ideas as the storm trended fairly significantly towards it with dynamics able to beat out the warm air for at least the first bunch of hours resulting in some extremely heavy, dense snow.  Make sure to stay tuned throughout the day tomorrow for snowfall accumulations, road condition updates, power outage updates, short-term forecasts, and updates on schools on Friday.  I’ll do my best to get you all the information as fast as possible.  Thank you for following swctweather.com!

One response to “MIDNIGHT FINAL UPDATE

  1. This is very well done. Thank you for the hard work. A terrific public service and greatly appreciated.

    Bill

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