March Misses: Chances of Scrape/Miss Skyrocket

In the post last night, I outlined three potential scenarios for Southwestern Connecticut in the upcoming storm: a direct hit, a scrape, and a miss.  I gave each one percentage chances; with new data in today it is time for a fairly drastic revision.  As I feared, the recent trend of snow storms not significantly impacting the area is going to continue.  The trend this month has been for the storms to trend away from Southwestern Connecticut, and that is the reason why I included the “miss” as an option even though there was not really any model support.  Now, it is the most likely scenario, as all weather guidance trended significantly east during the day today.  This post will be more brief as there are less impacts to outline, but I’ll run down the potential chances of each scenario and basically what I expect the final outcome will be.

If you need descriptions for the three scenarios, you can look at the previous post where I outline what each one entails.  The updated percentage chances follow:

Direct Hit: 10% (6-12+ inches of snow)

Scrape: 30% (2-6 inches of snow)

Miss: 60% (less than 2 inches of snow)

Almost all major weather guidance trended to the east with the low pressure center today, favoring instead an inverted trough scenario to our south bringing some moderate snow to the Mid Atlantic.  It still looks like some light snow could move into the region Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, but my current forecast is for anywhere from 1-3 inches of snow.  No major impacts are expected, though scattered school delays Wednesday morning are possible depending on exact timing of the snow.  I will continue to watch that closely and report back, but as this is a smaller scale feature it will be hard to know until later tomorrow until Tuesday morning exactly what impacts can be expected.

There remains a very outside chance that this storm trends back and more significantly scrapes the region, resulting in a period of heavier snow and gustier winds.  Again, models are trending away from this scenario, and given the poor ridge axis placement that I pointed out yesterday and the general trend of the month away from snow storms in the area I really don’t think we get significant impacts from this, but sometimes weather can have a mind of its own.  This will be a very strong low pressure center, and even with this miss we will still have some gusty winds as the storm rapidly strengthens to our southeast and then east.  I will continue to cover future model runs and update the blog as necessary, but for now the going forecast is for widespread amounts of 1-3 inches of snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with minimal impacts.  Keep it here for the latest storm coverage as this complex scenario continues to develop.

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