This is the free post to go along side an update that we had to the forecast on our premium subscription service. A reminder, you can simple click on the “Subscribe” button to sign up for the subscription service and get much more detailed, long-term forecasts further advanced, along with numerous other useful sidebar content. Similarly, if you would not like a subscription but just to view this individual premium forecast for planning purposes, you can purchase this individual forecast here. The post analyzes the impacts (power outages, road closures, etc.) while also going more in detail and showing some of the weather model solutions for timing and strength of the winds. Finally, it takes a brief look at the longer range and multiple storm threats that exist in the future.
As for the free forecast, here we go: Over the next 24 hours, branches will come down, and there could even be some weak/fragile downed trees but nothing too widespread. But in terms of main speed, we expect winds to peak with sustained winds of 25-30 mph across the entire area with wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range and a chance of isolated wind gusts to 50 mph, mainly by the coastline. Westchester will likely see the least bad winds, while New Haven County is more likely to see some of the worst, unless of course the HD NAM I showed above verifies, in which case coastal Fairfield County would see the worst winds. Either way, we are fairly confident in these wind speeds, and believe the National Weather Service issued Advisories mainly due to the isolated 50 mph wind gust threat and not because they expect these gusts to be widespread or that there should be serious wind damage.
TIMING: Winds are already beginning to pick up, so there is no real “start time” to publicize about winds. By 11 PM they will really be picking up, and the worst winds will come in two rounds. The first round comes between 2 and 6 AM as the secondary low pressure center strengthens and winds up, tightening the gradient and pulling in stronger winds. Though you may not notice it, gusts may actually decrease in intensity for a couple hour period, likely between 6 AM and 10 AM, before the second round picks up with even stronger winds between 10 AM and 4 PM. It appears the first round of strong winds is with the initial low pressure center, the second is the very cold air being guided down behind the storm. The strongest gusts (to 50 mph) are much more likely in that second round of winds from 10 AM to 4 PM, where sustained winds will be up to 5 mph stronger on average across the area. Either way, be sure to secure all outdoor decorations now, as it only gets worse from here, and by the time you wake up winds will already be raging with another round of very strong winds in the evening.
That’s really a brief summary of the conditions you can expect through the next 24 hours, as rain winds down over the next few hours and it is the winds that pick up. A reminder again that if you would like more details on this storm or any future to Subscribe to our Premium Service or purchase this individual premium forecast. We will continue to provide updates through the storm as necessary, but it was really just this small western jog that has upped the ante with the winds and we felt necessary to address. Stay tuned here for the latest!