Wanted to just put out there a brief update saying again totals have been lowered across the region as the storm continues to trend further and further south. Most models now no longer show any accumulating precipitation into Southwestern Connecticut; the same weather models that 48-60 hours ago were showing anywhere from 4-12+ inches of snow across the region. It’s truly amazing how things can change like this, and we apologize for the incorrect forecasts that were originally published with this storm. What we feel is important is to learn from scenarios like this. Hard to doubt the power of the polar vortex from now on, as its sheer strength along with the very powerful cold air moving in behind this cold front have totally suppressed this storm to the south, shunting all precipitation away from the region.
It’s funny; I originally posted saying I didn’t like the 500mb upper level air pattern for a large snow storm, hence why I never went too aggressive with any forecasts. However, what we ended up seeing was suppression beyond what I thought was within the realm of possibility of this storm. So while we never called for too large a snow storm, we will own up to the missed forecast with regards to widespread school impacts possible and a light/moderate impact snow storm across the region. It is projected that all school districts will open on time tomorrow with absolutely no problems as I would be surprised if anyone saw any legitimate accumulating snow now overnight tonight.
You live and you learn, and here at Southwestern Connecticut weather we are going to analyze the data as this storm goes through, see what went wrong, and make sure we do our best to avoid doing this again. We would be hard pressed to find another organization that did not call for at least a moderate snow storm; even the typically conservative National Weather Service was calling for widespread snowfall amounts up to 3-7 inches as recently as a couple days ago. Our weather modeling guidance failed us with this storm, which does tend to happen from time to time, and that is why you must always be kept on your toes and constantly update your forecasts, which we attempt to do. Hopefully, despite the blown forecast, you were given enough notice about the southern trend that it did not significantly impact any plans, as we always make sure to try and keep you one step ahead of any other news outlets to plan accordingly, whether more snow or less snow is coming.
Looking to the future, expect frigid air tomorrow and throughout the early week period with some warning possible later in the week and into the weekend. Sunday into Monday we are watching the possible for light snow, and then next weekend yes, there could be some wintry storms to watch for, but nothing is a lock. As always, we will continue to monitor all future potential storms and do our best to keep you as informed as possible about potential impacts across Southwestern Connecticut. We thank you for bearing with us through this difficult and complex forecast, and we’ll be back in the coming days with details on any future storm threats.