8:30 PM Free Update on Storms and Long-Range Cold

For those interested, I posted a very detailed, 3,300 word update for Premium viewers on the 3 storm threats (21st, 24th, and 26/27), the long-range cold setup and how long it will last, and natural gas implications of this colder forecast.  You can purchase it here for the reduced price of $1.99 if you are not a Premium member.  Still, I want to share with you some of the forecasts I’m looking at for the rest of the year and into the New Year.  I’ll pass along portions of the Premium post that focus on the forecasts I’ve made for a couple upcoming storms, and then will briefly analyze the long-range post.  Again, if you’re interested in daily content that is even more in-depth than this alongside potential investment implications of these forecasts and updated 7-day forecasts with email alerts every time a forecast changes or a new update is posted, do consider signing up for SWCT/NY Weather Premium here!

First, I want to address the storm on Sunday.  It once was looking quite treacherous, but has entirely disappeared, so that our ECMWF weather model, which once showed a strong storm sitting just south of Long Island Sunday afternoon, instead shows this for Sunday morning.  That’s a setup that could maybe yield a rain or snow shower on Sunday, and nothing else.  The Canadian model, which had earlier been trending towards a stronger low pressure center closer to the coast, now also just has some scattered snow showers Sunday afternoon.  And the GFS weather model shows nothing at all.  So what had previously been a serious-looking storm potential has completely disappeared on all our weather guidance as they continue to see that there is not a proper upper level energy connection to produce a strong surface low pressure center.  I will continue to watch this threat closely, but as the 500mb atmosphere layer looks to be so much less robust than previously forecast I am not especially concerned about this storm anymore, and I would be surprised if there were any impacts on Sunday.  Any updates to this storm will be posted to the free site as well as it is only a few days away, now, but it is unlikely anything other than a few snow or rain showers fall under a mostly cloudy Sunday sky.

The forecast for a storm system blowing through mid-week next week is similarly complex.  It looks like Tuesday will be wet with a weaker disturbance forming out ahead of the main one on Wednesday.  (This formation is explained more in the Premium forecast).  It is Wednesday that we will see the most impacts, however.  Models agree that this low pressure center to our west will pull up very warm, moist air from the south, resulting in steady light to moderate rain through the day with gusty winds as the cold front approaches Wednesday night.  Temperatures into the mid 50s will then drop into the 30s rapidly behind the cold front as gusty winds bring in some much more seasonable air.  If the low pressure center moves closer to us, expect stronger winds and heavier rain.  If it moves further west impacts will not be as strong.  I will continue to watch this very closely and will have daily updates on this storm to keep you ahead of any pre-Christmas travel troubles.  As the heart of the storm is still 6 days out, a lot can still change, but models and the overall pattern do agree strongly for this very strong storm somewhere in the eastern US; it is just the extract track that as always will have major implications on just how much rain falls and just how strong the wind blows.  Behind the storm, there is a low-end threat for some flurries/snow showers on Christmas Day, with the White Christmas forecast being available and updated daily for premium subscribers.  Another storm with some rain December 26/27 looks likely, and behind that colder air gets ushered in.

On the premium site, I detail some longer-range indicators that point towards the cold end to December into January, but I want to also go over some of our more basic computer models that are freely available for anyone to look at.  The latest GEFS continues to show extremely mild weather come next Tuesday, as seen here.  By next Friday, December 26th, it is still quite mild, as seen here.  But then by next Sunday, cold has completely taken over, as you can see here.  This cold is expected to last the entire week and only intensify, as here is the forecast for Friday, January 2nd.  The upper air pattern on December 30th looks like this, with cold across almost all of the United States and even much of the warmth up by the North Pole being displaced back across Alaska in a textbook setup for cold air to be discharged into the eastern United States in a broad scale trough.  This is a frigid setup, and it is one that all of our weather models show.  This massive ridge pushing up north helps displace some of the colder polar air down much further south towards us, and this is what can set up true cold snaps.  And while (as seen on the right) there are a wide range of ways that our weather models set up this colder pattern, the agreement is there that a cold pattern thus sets up for the end of December and lasts into early January.  Just in case you don’t believe me, you can see the CMC ensembles set up the exact same pattern as the GEFS ensembles here for December 30th with widespread cold in the eastern US and a branch of the polar vortex moving down further south over Canada.  The moral of the story: cold is coming, and it will have some staying power into January.  The southern jet still looks active, so it is our entrance into January that I am watching for some storm threats.  I don’t believe that December will feature too much snow at the beginning of this cold pattern, but January could with such a pattern.  As to how long this cold lasts, it is far too early to say, as it is even too early to be sure just how strong it will.  However, it looks to at least last into the first couple days of January, and though it will likely not be record-breaking or anything like that, it will be a large difference from the mild weather we see now.

Again, if you want more detail and analysis, then consider purchasing the Premium forecast or a membership, but I will continue to offer free content as well to keep the discussion going as to what weather will come through the region in the coming weeks.  Stay tuned here to swctweather.com for the latest on weather across the region!

 

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