8:15 PM UPDATE: 25% Delay, 0% Cancellations

The heaviest of the snow is moving through the area currently, and the back end looks to move through in the next 1-2 hours, though some flurries after that will still remain possible.  There does not appear reason to believe that there will be widespread delayed openings for schools tomorrow, as snowfall accumulations generally look to peak around 1.5 to maybe 2 inches, with most areas falling within the expected 1-1.5 inches of snow total.  The storm is really behaving normally with no changes or sudden rapid intensification, so at this point I see no reason to raise the delay chance further than 5% from 20% to 25%.

What a lot of this comes down to is simply whether crews will be able to remove the snow and remaining ice from roadways this evening.  The reason the chance was raised at all was because temperatures again tonight will be getting into the upper teens and we are getting reports of roadways covered.  Granted, there are about 9 hours before a decision has to be made, and the snow will be over in 1-2 hours, meaning that most towns will have 7+ hours to clear roadways of only 1 or 2 inches of snow.  I really don’t see much reason to delay for this unless black ice remains an issue into the evening due to a lack of sand/salt on roadways.  Many towns are running low on sand/salt, and that could impact decisions tomorrow morning, thus the 25% chance.  Very little of this comes down to real weather conditions, as the storm is performing exactly as forecasted and will not be impacting anyone by tomorrow morning.  Assuming cleanups and road treatments go according to plan tonight, I don’t see any reason for schools to need to delay.  If some roads are not properly treated due to any number of factors, there could be isolated delays.  So, I would be surprised if many districts delayed tomorrow, but I would not be surprised to see one or two pop up if the superintendents remain that worried about road conditions by tomorrow morning.  Remember, though, this is New England, and I believe that road crews will have no problem keeping roads safe by tomorrow morning.

I also want to briefly update regarding a storm Thursday into early Friday.  Weather models are beginning to converge on a solution that takes the storm near the 40/70 benchmark out over the Atlantic, which is close to a perfect track for snow in SWCT.  However, there will be no high pressure placed to lock in cold air, so we will be dealing with more stale cold air.  A strong low pressure center along the right track will still cool the atmosphere enough for snow, but we could be dealing with mixing issues.  Either way, models are agreeing there is a storm coming during the day on Thursday and at this point it looks to be at least part snow, though I have a feeling it will be mainly snow with maybe some mixing with rain, especially at the coast.  I’ll continue focusing on this over the next few weeks and will keep you updated.

That’s all I have for this evening.  Snow ends shortly and travel begins to improve after 10 or 11 PM tomorrow.  Not expecting many delays, either for schools or for travel, tomorrow morning as the sun will shine and temperatures approach freezing.  Eyes tomorrow all turn to the Thursday storm, which could provide more major impacts than previously expected.  As always, stay tuned for localized Southwestern Connecticut weather coverage.

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