8 PM UPDATE: Tuesday Early Dismissal Chance 50%

Short range guidance is beginning to get into close enough range to show that snow starting between 12 PM and 1 PM is likely across the area, and with many school districts not getting their last students home until 3 or 4 PM this has led to me to raise the Early Dismissal chances yet again, though I am not quite ready to forecast Early Dismissals across the board yet.  I am awaiting 0z model guidance and short range guidance these evening, and I will be comparing that to recent radar and upper air trends to see if the storm is on track with timing.  If the storm appears on track then I will raise the percentage again and begin to forecast Early Dismissals for tomorrow, but if I see the storm proceeding slower, either at the surface or aloft, then I may hold off until earlier tomorrow morning.  Most school districts leave until around 10 AM to make the Early Dismissal calls, so I will likely be reporting on Early Dismissals throughout the day.

Specifically in terms of conditions, I see snow generally starting between 12 PM and 1 PM, with half an inch of snow across much of the area by 2 PM, and an inch by 3 or 3:30 PM.  These are not large accumulations, but as I’ve said with temperatures in the mid to upper teens snow will stick immediately to all roads, even if they are treated with salt and snow.  Quickly deteriorating road conditions are the main reason why the Early Dismissal chance is currently so high.  Along with that, the Winter Storm Warning going into effect at 12 PM could also spur many superintendents to believe this is an easier decision than it currently looks to be, although by tomorrow morning the weather may decide to make it easy anyways.

In terms of forecasting snowfall amounts, there are no major changes to report of at this time.  I am awaiting additional guidance this evening to see if I should be changing anything around, but I remain quite confident in my snowfall amounts.  The only big question mark is in timing, and that should hopefully become more clear over the next couple of hours.  Keep it here as I monitor the storm and any potential school impacts that could be felt tomorrow.

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