8 PM UPDATE: 50% Snow Day (inland) 35% Snow Day (coast)

No updates to the snow day forecast as of the 8 PM update because of very divergent modeling data and surface observations.  Looking on radar we see an extremely impressive low pressure center situated to our northwest that will help pull enough warm air into the region to likely turn the tail end of precipitation to rain at the immediate coast.  Short range weather models are picking up on this but showing a different story, which is what I will be breaking down in this blog.

What I am starting to see is a trend against any significant precipitation before 8 or 9 AM.  This means that chances are that coastal schools will be able to have school tomorrow, and depending on the severity of the storm inland areas may be able to have school as well.  The latest HRRR weather model shows at best half an inch of snow on the ground if that by 8 AM with the heavier snow still not quite starting yet, and the RAP short range weather model also paints a similar story.  While individually I don’t weight these models much, their agreement is important and something that we have to watch very closely here.  If these trends continue into future runs, in the next update at 10 PM I may actually lower the snow day percentages across the board.  If trends begin to reverse or surface observations really diverge from what these models are showing, then the chances may be raised or kept the same.  Whenever the short range models paint a drastically different story than the medium range models, it means we have to watch each run and every observation very closely as something is wrong, and that’s exactly what I plan on doing here.

Overall, the forecast holds true for now, with 2-5 inches region-wide and the higher amounts expected inland, but these short-range models do not show quite that much snow across the region.  We are still in their long range where they are less accurate, but we have to weight them more with their agreement.  This is a very complex situation now, especially as this is a smaller scale storm where sudden shifts like this are even more possible.  Make sure to keep it here and on Twitter for the latest as we track any new possible developments.

 

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