2:30 PM UPDATE: Tuesday; Early Dismissal 35%, Closure 5%

Brief update here as there is very little to report before the 18z model data begins to come in.  Chance of an Early Dismissal is lower than I expected at this time because recent short range guidance, as it comes into the edge of its range, shows that precipitation may start later than I previously expected.  The high definition ARW/NMM have precipitation wait to start until between 2 and 4 PM across the region, and the 24-hour Rapid Update Cycle model still has the region totally dry through 12 PM with only flurries looking likely in the few hours after.  Other models still have precipitation starting earlier, so the conclusion here is that confidence is lowering regarding the exact expected start time of the snow tomorrow.  Of course the final call regarding Early Dismissals will not be made until 10 AM tomorrow, but the forecasts made this evening and tomorrow morning will be extremely important in many superintendents’ determinations of whether schools should dismiss early or not.  If there is a major shift then there is an extremely small chance of isolated closures tomorrow, as a few more extreme models have precipitation start by 10 AM, but we would need to see a huge shift in guidance timing for that to be necessary.  At this time I am more certain that schools will be significantly impacted Wednesday than they will tomorrow, though there is still a 40% chance of some type of impact tomorrow.  As confidence increases it is very possible that that chance of an Early Dismissal rises, but if models trend towards the short range guidance with the snow starting later that chance could decrease as well.  As we go into the evening I will be tracking radar trends and will be able to have a much better idea of exactly when snow is likely to start, so make sure to stay tuned.

2 responses to “2:30 PM UPDATE: Tuesday; Early Dismissal 35%, Closure 5%

  1. Thank you for your updates. I work with someone in charge of school closings and am always checking your site.

  2. How many inches of snow do you think Fairfield county might get?

    Regards,

    David Rich
    david_rich@hotmail.com
    +1 203 788 9478

    >

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