11 PM FINAL UPDATE: 100% Snow Day

Well, I’ve been saying that Friday was the most likely day that schools across Fairfield County would close for almost all week, and now we have all districts except 1, Fairfield, announcing that they will not be opening tomorrow.  That in itself is basically enough reason for me to guarantee that chance of a snow day.  With every district in the state preemptively closing, and with heavier snow possibly now lasting until 7 or 8 AM and lingering snow showers possibly lasting through 9 or 10 AM, I see no reason for Fairfield Public Schools to open tomorrow.  All school districts in Southwestern Connecticut are likely to close due to the storm.

In terms of accumulations, the forecast is still on track.  The latest RAP and RPM models are even more aggressive continuing to show the potential for 8-10+ inches of snow across the region.  For now, I am most confident in the lower range of my totals, thinking it is likely most areas in coastal areas see 6-8 inches and inland 7-9 inches.  However, due to the complex banding overnight, I would not be surprised if isolated regions got into the upper ranges of my current forecast.  Short range models continue to trend towards slightly more moisture, and I would be more confident in very impressive totals if the radar didn’t show snow temporarily decreasing in intensity across Southwestern Connecticut which could shave maybe an inch or so off of what some of these models are saying.

The cold is also on the way.  Temperatures approaching single digits are being reported in northern parts of the county, and even down at the immediate coast temperatures are in the lower to mid teens.  Snowfall ratios are still not too high, but this was also expected.  It was after 1 AM that snowfall ratios were expected to increase, and some shorter range models show an impressive band of heavy snow moving through between 3 AM and 5 AM that with higher ratios could result in snowfall rates over an inch per hour.  This is why I am not as concerned about the temporary lull in snowfall across the area, as it is occurring when snow is falling at a lower ratio than it will be later in the storm.  Plus, the radar can be seen filling back in further to the south and that precipitation is likely to move through the area in the next couple hours.  The RAP even showed a lull similar to the one that we are going to be experiencing.

I will continue to track the cold temperatures and higher ratio temperatures as they approach the region.  This likely will be the last update today as I have been up tracking and reporting on this storm since 10:30 AM and have not really taken a break, so I am beginning to run on fumes.  If I see any major trends I may publish an extra 12 AM blog or something, but if not I will just be posting a recap tomorrow.  Expect areas that are only seeing light/moderate snow right now to fill back in with snow over the next few hours and then another round of intense snowfall before sunrise resulting in extremely dangerous road conditions.  Already roads are treacherous with numerous reports of accidents across the region, so do not travel unless it is an absolute emergency.  Knowing roads are this bad only adds confidence to the idea of Fairfield closing, resulting in every district in Fairfield County closing.

That’s really it from here though.  This has been an exciting storm to track, and I am glad I stuck with my original idea and didn’t waver too much with the weather models because it ended up being quite close to what actually happened, even though it was a big too aggressive.  I hope you enjoyed the storm coverage, and if you wake up tomorrow morning and see that I got the forecast right for you maybe consider a donation!  I’ll continue to update the sidebars with any changes to forecasts and, as I said above, will post again if I see anything pressing that could change my totals.  For now, the storm appears on track.  I’ll keep updating the Twitter account for at least another hour though so definitely stay tuned!

One response to “11 PM FINAL UPDATE: 100% Snow Day

  1. Thanks for your excellent coverage of this storm and for all your hard work.

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