Tomorrow’s Storm Mostly Wet For Region

All week we have been updating Premium subscribers on a storm system moving through tomorrow.  We had been downplaying expectations as it had been clear that the setup was not conducive for significant snowfall accumulations, especially down at the coast, and recently weather modeling guidance has moved in that direction.  Today we issued an updated forecast for them, along with a travel impact highlight and forecast through the next 2 weeks as to when we could see the next major winter weather event.  To view the full forecast for the upcoming storm and to get email updates around all weather events, subscribe here.  Otherwise, below we have attached the summary of our forecast for tomorrow:

A rapidly strengthening storm system will move even closer to the region than expected tomorrow.  Model forecasts shifted a bit further northwest with the storm system and take slightly longer to develop the independent low pressure center that was supposed to lock in colder weather, so accordingly we are going to see more rain than any type of wintry precipitation across the region.  Light snow showers start between 7 and 10 AM across the region, quickly mixing with rain by 10 AM.  After 10 AM the entire region quickly turns over to heavy rain.  In the heaviest bursts of precipitation some wet snowflakes could mix in through the afternoon, but with temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s it will be very difficult for any snow to stick at all.  Rain lingers into the evening, potentially mixing with some snow on the back end as precipitation winds down by 9 PM.  We then dry out overnight with low temperatures in the low 30s/upper 20s.  As the storm rapidly strengthens to our northeast we should see gusty winds overnight with gusts into the low 30 mph range.

Accumulation forecasts are much more high confidence now as the entire storm is expected to be rain at the coast and even some inland regions.  Only far inland is there a threat for some wintry accumulations.  At coastal regions, a slushy coating is possible with the original round of snow showers before the rapid turn to rain.  Only on grassy surfaces will any coating be possible and just that seems unlikely; any coating will begin melting rapidly by 10 or 11 AM.  Inland further from the coast we could see a coating to 1 inch of snow in the first round through 10 or 11 AM, again mainly on grassy surfaces.  At the height of the storm, especially on the back end, some heavier banding of precipitation could see some snow reach the surface further inland, but recent models are showing even that be a bit unlikely.  Far inland, a coating to 2 inches is possible.  In the colder scenarios either at the front or back end of the storm we could have a quick thump of snow, but even far inland (north of I-84) almost all of the storm will be rain, limiting accumulations dramatically.

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