Storm Trends Slightly East

The below forecast was recently sent out in more complete form to Premium subscribers, who also received an updated school delay/closure forecast for tomorrow.  To begin receiving email updates before storms on potential impacts, forecast accumulations, expected timing, and our special school delay/closure forecasts, subscribe here.  Otherwise, below we detail the latest forecast update:

The updated snowfall forecast now calls for 1-3 inches of snow region-wide, which was the original forecast. As has been the case with most storms recently, expect the highest accumulations (around 3 inches) in eastern New Haven County while the least accumulations (around 1 inch) should be in Westchester County.  Accumulations of 3-5 inches are possible in heaviest banding in far eastern New Haven County, but most models have continued to trend east and show that the majority of that banding should miss the region.  This is why I do not like to change forecasts without significant confidence, as the models clearly headfaked us last night showing the potential for far more significant accumulations.

Confidence is increasing in this forecast as recent short-range models (HRRR and RAP) are agreeing well.  A couple models show the risk for more snowfall across eastern parts of New Haven County, while other models show the potential for a bust across inland Fairfield County and Westchester County with less than an inch of snow falling.  Both of these are real possibilities that I will continue to follow closely as the storm develops, but I am feeling better in broadly 1-3 inches of snow across the region.

Snow is now expected to start between 8 and 11 PM tonight as once again the storm has slowed down.  Temperatures at the coast may take until 11 PM or midnight to drop below freezing, so some snow could even struggle to stick at first even though the sun will have been down for hours.  By midnight temperatures should be dropping below freezing and light snow will be moving in.  A period of moderate snow is likely bewteen 1 AM and 6 AM, primarily across New Haven County.  Snow finally moves out sometime between 5 and 8 AM from west to east, and by 9 or 10 AM temperatures across Fairfield and Westchester Counties will be above freezing with the sun trying to come out.

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