A moderate impact winter weather event is expected late tonight into tomorrow, with impacts winding down by early tomorrow afternoon. Premium subscribers just received a detailed breakdown of when the worst travel conditions are likely to be, where confidence is highest/lowest in the forecast, and what is likely to change from here. Attached below is our expected timing of precipitation and accumulation expectations across the region. As it is early in the season, we attached a piece of our travel impact forecast as well. To get more detailed updates emailed directly to you in real-time, be sure to subscribe here.
Snow breaks out across the region between 1 and 3 AM, generally from west to east. The heaviest snow is expected between 6 and 10 AM across the region, when snowfall intensity of up to an inch or more may be possible. By 8 AM we may begin to see sleet and freezing rain mix in across far southern areas. By 9 AM we expect coastal areas will be turning to a mix of sleet and freezing rain, though temperatures are likely still below average. The entire region goes over to freezing rain by around 10 AM as surface temperatures only gradually warm. By 11 AM temperatures at the coast barely get above freezing, but some icy patches may linger while inland areas are almost all below freezing. By noon precipitation dies down as a mix of freezing rain/rain across the region, and we dry out through the afternoon.
As for accumulations, right now a broad 3-6 inches of snow can be expected across the region. However, a more precise forecast would be 2-5 inches of snow/sleet in coastal areas and 3-6 inches inland, as inland areas see about an hour more intense snow that could allow for accumulations to be a bit higher than coastal areas which mix sooner. Additionally, the entire region could see up to a tenth of an inch of ice, which would actually make travel even more dangerous than just the snow. There is the potential for the period of freezing rain and especially rain to compact the snow, especially as the first part of the snowfall will be rather fluffy, so we could see widely varying accumulation amounts (anywhere inside these ranges) but these amounts are for what is forecast to fall before any turn to freezing rain/rain.
In terms of travel impacts, we begin to see roads become slippery with light snow falling between 2 adn 4 AM. The worst travel conditions look to be between 6 and 11 AM at the coast and 6 AM and 12 PM inland. Even into the afternoon there look to be some lingering icy patches, so through 3 or 4 PM inland some areas in valleys could see enough cold air trapped for lingering icy patches causing delays and travel troubles. By tomorrow evening concerns should ease, and overnight temperatures rise relatively quickly so that there will be no overnight travel concerns, but into the late morning at the coast and early afternoon inland look to be quite slippery.
Overnight tomorrow night we see some drizzle with low temperatures rising from the low to the mid 40s through the night. Into early Sunday more steady rain can be expected across the region as temperatures rise, quickly melting any lingering snow.