Premium subscribers have been made aware of recent forecasts for the upcoming storm and have had access to forecast school implications. Below is the latest version of the freely available forecast:
First, as you can clearly see here, light snow is overspreading the region, with more along the coast thus far than inland. Snow will become more widespread through the coming hours, as it started slightly earlier than most model guidance had expected but is in line with my updated timings yesterday afternoon. It now looks like the heaviest snow could be moving in as soon as 4 PM and will continue through around midnight tonight, but I don’t see much more snow falling after midnight.
Sadly, the majority of weather model guidance is actually down at this time, so I can not access the HD ARW/NMM/NAM or RAP/HRRR extreme short-range guidance. The majority of NCEP servers look to have somehow been hit hard and taken offline. Accordingly, I don’t have a lot of weather guidance to share with you. You can see from 1 to 4 PM the NAM has steady snow continuing across the region here before picking up a little more through 7 PM here. Light snow then sticks around through about 1 AM here, with the model printing out accumulations of 6-7 inches widespread across the region. It has trended significantly colder, showing only Westchester County turning over to freezing rain with SWCT remaining snow throughout, which is more in line with what I was expecting as the trend this winter is for storms to push further southeast as they approach. Most models don’t show any freezing rain into Westchester County, and though we could briefly see a mix even into SWCT I doubt it will be sustained and really cut into accumulations. You can see that the RGEM, which I have found most reliable this year, shows here widespread accumulations in the 4-5 inch range across most of SWCT with isolated amounts approaching 6 inches, in line with the forecast. So I really think that snowfall amounts will end up in the narrow 4-6 inch range with maybe even a little more than 6 inches in spots, but that if there is any mixing with freezing rain, likely in southern Westchester County, that is where we could see accumulations limited to the 3-4 inch range. Overall, the range of 3-6 inches of snow remains widespread as these models continue to support it.