A brief Premium update has been posted to Premium subscribers. Parts of it have been freely released below to highlight remaining threats with the storm. As the surface low formed further south than almost all guidance indicates, it appears that we will end up in the lower-end range of the snow forecast overall:
The updated forecast is for 2-5 inches of snow region wide; essentially, we have seen 2-3 inches region wide, and are expected to see anywhere from a coating to 2 more inches of snow. The low-end range should verify everywhere except New Haven. However, a band tomorrow should move through New Haven County which could drop another inch or two, bringing them into the forecast range as well. So, I was happy that I was on the lower side of snowfall forecasts, as this storm has certainly underperformed for overall snow production potential, but should be within the forecast. Similarly, the call to be below the National Weather Service forecast in most regions has worked well.
Also luckily, it looks like we may avoid the worst of the winds. I am now looking at gusts of up to only 55 mph at the coast, in line with the latest National Weather Service updates. Between 5 and 7 AM the winds become noticeably, still peaking between 9 and 11 AM, and slowly dying down in the afternoon. This is all right on track with the forecast that was published yesterday. The intensity is just slightly less, so I doubt power outages are quite as bad as I had expected, but there still could be some, especially at the coast. Though a slight bust in the forecast, I am very happy to bust on this and not see what could have been.
Overall, the southern jog of the storm was considered possible and highlighted as a potential to Premium members yesterday because of how poorly models have been handling these energy transfers recently, which is why the low-end ranges of the forecast were so low. The forecast was far from perfect, but thus far has worked well. Now attention turns to the wind and blowing snow potential. Be sure to stay tuned for additional updates.