This post will briefly focus on two storm threats, one coming Thursday/Friday and another coming Sunday/Monday in the coming week. It ends with a brief discussion of the long-term pattern. The full post is available for purchase on our Premium site here and you can always subscribe here for a Premium Subscription, using the coupon “weather” for an early-season 10% discount of all services. Now to the post:
We continue to track a storm threat on Thursday/Friday that could have both dangerous winds and heavy rain. Now, there are two scenarios that I highlight with graphics on Premium that I can summarize generally here: The CMC weather model shows the formation of a secondary low pressure system over the Boston area while the primary low pressure center is further back to the west. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF weather model have this. So what would this do? Put simply, this secondary low pressure center would steal energy from the primary low pressure center, resulting in a storm that could have been very bad having very little impact at all.
We have two of our three major weather models we use for storms of this nature showing a strong low pressure center consolidated and close to the region with the potential to create strong winds (gusts up to 45-50 mph) and heavy rain, with over an inch of rainfall. However, a lower-end chance exists that we get spared the worst from this storm with the formation of a secondary surface low pressure system, in which case the winds would not be nearly as strong. A consolidated low helps winds get extremely strong above the surface, and then if they mix down in heavy rain we see some of our strongest gusts. If we have a second low, this is not the case as we don’t see those upper level winds, and thus our gusts are not as severe. Even rain is further east. So we are following a storm that could bring multiple impacts (on premium, we have a dissuasion on the chances of power lines coming down, roads being closed, and yes, even schools being delayed) but at this time confidence is not completely there that this will be a higher impact storm, as a lot would have to come together. We will continue to follow it, with constant updates on the Premium site and similar updates on the storm being posted here. The going forecast continues to be rain around .75-1 inch, mainly falling Thursday night though starting in the afternoon and ending Friday morning, with the worst winds early Friday morning before sunup.
With regards to the Sunday/Monday storm, models diverge more. Originally, it looked like there would not be much of a storm, but we have had a couple weather models show solutions with stronger low pressure centers forming just offshore, and the latest CMC weather model even has it slamming onshore. Though this storm is unlikely to be as severe as the one that we have coming up Thursday/Friday (again, unless that one falls apart) it still could be significant if a lot comes together. It is still fairly early to really analyze the storm that closely, but know that it is becoming more likely that Sunday afternoon and evening become washouts due to either a passing cold front or low pressure system. A couple weather models do signal Nor’ Easter yet again, just telling how active this pattern is, but our forecast is for a lesser-impact event with maybe a burst of rain with a cold front or a wet day with lesser rain and winds from a weaker storm out to sea. This can change, but we are not yet as exceedingly worried about this storm, despite increasing indications of a consolidated low pressure center. Either way, by Monday the rain/winds associated with the storm move out, and we the coldest air of the season begin to move in. Longer term, by Wednesday or Thursday we could have one more cold front reinforce this cold air.
In terms of the longer-range discussion, we have actually seen a fairly significant shift in some of our longer-term weather models. They have turned colder and stormier, showing the potential, not in the next 7-10 days, but further on, for some snow storms. It is very possible by November 20th someone sees accumulating snow, and we continue to track that potential. Though we strive to continue to post updated forecasts here on the free site, and will be sure to update you before each storm for the great viewer base we have had, we continue to encourage you to sign up for our brand new premium service so that you may get further advanced warning about all of these storms and get more regular content. We will, however, be sure to post a forecast here on the free site for the upcoming storm, as it is important for the public to be aware of exactly what this storm might entail should a worst case scenario play out. Be sure to keep it here as we release that forecast in the next couple of days, and stay tuned as this cold and active pattern begins to play out.