Monday Morning Bringing Freezing Rain

We recently released our Premium forecast for the Monday storm, and I wanted to pass along some of it here.  If you want more of the details, the current travel and school impact analysis from it, and email updates whenever the forecast is updated, you can subscribe here.  Below is our latest thinking:

This has led to, again, a very complicated forecast.  Most of the models indicate that the snow line will get up to around the CT/MA border, which I believe.  This storm is guaranteed to not be just a snow event for the region.  It looks like the light drizzle/precipitation will begin around 5 AM from what I am seeing.  Some models show patchy precipitation forming by 3 or 4 AM, but I think that may be a little early.  Still, a round of precipitation will likely begin to approach the region around 5 AM and by 7 AM at the latest, and both inland and coastal areas at that point should still be below freezing, so everywhere starts as freezing rain.  By 8 or 9 AM, I think coastal areas turn over to plain rain.  Inland areas turn over sometime between 10 and 11 AM given what I am seeing, and the real steady, heavier precipitation falls as plain rain late in the morning into the early afternoon before the storm moves out.  Overall, ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch are possible at the coast with up to a tenth of an inch of ice inland likely.  Around a quarter to a half an inch of plain rain is expected, with maybe up to an inch of snow far inland if colder air can hold on a little longer aloft.  Precipitation may move in over top of the region too as it overruns, so inland areas could see precipitation start a little earlier (say 4 AM or so) and thus start as a little snow.  Either way, I don’t see any coastal regions getting any snow accumulations.

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