Monday Mix Storm First Forecast Release

Premium clients have had access to our detailed forecasts for the past day on the upcoming storm, and now a free version has been released below.  You may also subscribe to be a Premium member here.

The latest forecast now is for 4-8 inches south of the Merritt/Hutchinson Parkway and 6-12 inches north of there.  This is due to strong model agreement that there will be mixing here, so that the max snow at the coast has really been capped to around 8 inches even in the most snowy scenarios.  The latest 0z NAM shows mixing slightly after 7 AM here.  The NAM then has the rain/snow line getting to around I-84 here.  The GFS also still has us all snow through 7 AM, as seen here.  The HD NAM is even a little colder at 7 AM, seen here.  So thus we do have a consensus of all snow through 7 AM, and anywhere from .4 to .6 inches of liquid, means generally 4-6 inches of snow at the coast.  It takes inland areas another hours or two at least to turn over to snow, which makes up the 2-inch different between coastal areas and inland areas with the upcoming storm.

The coast then turns over to a sleet/freezing rain mix through most of the day, turning back to snow in the early afternoon and maybe getting another inch.  The real question is how long inland areas stay snow.  The NAM came in slightly colder, while the GFS showed about the exact same scenario, and the RGEM was a little warmer.  Overnight models will be key to identifying exactly what the rate of warming is overall, but generally a tenth to a quarter of an inch can be expected along with the snow/sleet based off of generally what I see.  There is a chance that most areas remain sleet and do not change over to freezing rain in some of the colder scenarios, and there is also a threat of plain rain.  Overall, though, I think .1-.25 inches of ice is the most likely accumulation of ice, and so that is the second half of the forecast still.  This ice will fall on top of any of the snow, causing travel problems through the day on Monday.

Another free update will be made available tomorrow afternoon with additional timing updates and an updated forecast, so please stay tuned.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>