Monday Forecast Has Only Minor Revisions

Models continue to home in on the final scenario tomorrow.  The first flakes across the region are likely to by flying sometime between 5 and 7 AM, but coastal areas should not see snow accumulate until 7 or 8 AM, with inland areas potentially not even seeing steady snow until 9/10 AM.  The precipitation shield is looking less impressive, but at least somewhat steady snow should continue through at least 2 PM.  Scattered snow showers will still continue through the evening.

The snow will still be slightly more light and fluffy than in past storms, but slightly warmer trends at the surface have me believing that ratios will be closer to 11:1 or 12:1 than the 15:1 that it previously looked like, especially at the coast.  Snow will start relatively wet but will become more powdery through the storm.  Temperatures at the coast may not drop below freezing until around 7/8 AM, so the first snow flakes may initially struggle to stick across coastal New Haven County.  This could keep travel conditions from deteriorating until at least 8 or 9 AM along I-95.

The forecast is now for 1-3 inches of snow across Westchester County, 2-4 inches across Fairfield County and 2-5 inches across New Haven County through 8 PM tomorrow.  This remains a high confidence forecast as models have come into strong agreement with this range.  The gradient will still go from northwest to southeast, with northwest Westchester County likely to only see 1-2 inches but southeast New Haven County likely to see around 5 inches of snow.  Around 2 inches of snow is expected in northern Fairfield County but near the Bridgeport area closer to 3 inches is expected.  Isolated 4 inch amounts on the New Haven County border are possible, though looking less likely.  At no time should snow be heavy, but briefly moderate snow is possible late morning into early afternoon.

Generally, it looks like most of the snow should fall through 2/3 PM, with about an additional inch falling between then and 7/8 PM.  This means that worst travel impacts are still expected to be between 9 AM and 2 PM.  Even at their worst they should not be too bad as snow is never heavy, but roads could be slick with a couple inches of snow falling that will be difficult to melt due to the colder temperatures.

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