Moderate Snow To Impact Morning Commute

Premium subscribers have been receiving consistent updates on the latest forecasts for the storm coming through tonight into tomorrow.  For the latest forecast update and for the school impact forecast, you can purchase the individual forecast here or subscribe here for all the content.  Part of the most recent forecast has been released below:

With the latest weather model guidance, I now feel confident enough to slightly upgrade total snowfall across the entire region.  The immediate coast I am now forecasting anywhere from 4-7 inches of snow.  Most models show accumulations right around 5 inches or so, but it looks like there is fairly strong model agreement at this point for 4 inches at the coast, and thus I feel confident forecasting that as a base now.  My one concern is that we stay rain slightly longer at the coast, and that makes it slightly harder for snow to stick.  Still, I think that 4 inches at the coast is a good minimum to have, and I see 3-6 inches of snow inland, with amounts closer to 3 inches far inland and any amounts approaching 6 inches occurring at the coast.  There is a chance that the forecast gets changed to just 3-6 inches region wide, or even upgraded to 4-7 inches region wide depending on the latest trends, but the 9 PM update will hold any such upgrade, as right now I still like having the coast with slightly more snowfall than inland areas.

The timing of this has changed slightly too.  Warmer air has been winning some battles aloft, and models indicate that the changeover may not occur down to the coast until as late as 2 or 3 AM.  Inland, it should occur as soon as midnight or 1 AM.  Still, precipitation is light at that point, but snow picks up by 5 AM, as seen on the HRRR here.  The model then shows light to moderate snow continuing through the morning.  The RAP model is in agreement as well.  The RAP at 7 AM shows steady snow continuing past 7 AM here.  And some models show steady snow continuing into the late morning, with snow showers maybe even remaining into the early afternoon.

With these slightly increased snowfall amounts, and with it looking like snow lasts longer into the morning, there is now an increased chance of school impacts and travel impacts lasting into the morning, which Premium subscribers have been briefed on.  First, travel impacts look to carry over through most of the morning.  Travel conditions do not go downhill in most areas until around 2 AM, but by 4 or 5 AM roads are getting bad, with worst travel conditions 5 AM through 9 AM most likely.  Snow should then taper off through the morning and into the early afternoon as road conditions improve into the evening.

The forecast remains quite variable, with a higher than normal bust potential due to the storm starting as rain and a huge range in weather model guidance remaining.  Please be sure to stay tuned for the latest.


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