Light Snow Likely Overnight; Highest Accumulations Near Coast

Below we share our official forecast for the light snow expected overnight into tomorrow morning.  Premium members have been receiving updates for the past 24 hours, and just received the updated percent chances of delays/snow days for schools across the SWCT/NY region.  They will receive additional updates through the day as to the chances of snow impacts, while any changes to the accumulation forecast will also be posted here.  To view the current chances of delays/closings and to receive all future changes by email, sign up here.  Otherwise, the latest forecast is attached below:

Partly cloudy skies early this afternoon become mostly cloudy by the evening as moisture approaches from the west.  Light snow showers between to move in betwen 9 PM and midnight tonight.  Steadiest snow is then expected between 1 and 5 AM (UPDATED), moving from west to east.  Between 6 and 9 AM we rapidly clear out, with the entire region dry by 9 AM as the sun attempts to come out by late morning.

Current snowfall estimates are for 1-3 inches of snow along coastal and inland regions and a coating-2 inches far inland around/north of I-84.  Model guidance is relatively consistent with the most steady snowfall occurring along coastal areas.  There remain some differences in guidance; short-range HRRR guidance shows only about a tenth of an inch of QPF, as do the short-range ARW/NMMM, but other guidance like the NAM and RAP show the potential for .15 to .2 inches of liquid by the coast which could easily become 3 inches of snow.  All snow will be quite light and fluffy, resulting in snowfall ratios of 1:15 to even 1:20 across the region.  Accordingly, even just .05 inches of liquid could become an inch of snow, which is why I am very confident that at least an inch of snow will fall along the coast.

Travel impacts tomorrow morning are likely for the Friday morning commute.  Of course, snow will be light, so impacts will be minimal, but slippery travel looks most likely between 3 and 7 AM.  Snow will stick instantly on roadways with cold temperatures, and though it may not be too icy and snow will not be heavy it may be hard for any sand/salt to melt much of the snow, so we could see slushy/snow-covered roads into around 7 or 8 AM.  Temperatures struggle to rise above freezing, so some snow could linger on back roads later into the morning.  Accordingly, just be slow to take it slow tomorrow morning, especially if you are out before 7 AM.

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