Freezing Rain to Fall Before Turn to Plain Rain

A detailed 3,400 word Premium update has been posted on 4 future storm threats along with an updated long-range forecast and a brief natural gas market analysis.  It can be purchased individually here or you can Subscribe to receive all our Premium content here.  While there are a number of storm threats in the future, the first of these is tomorrow, so parts of that Premium forecast have been posted below to alert you of any threats:

The main threat I want to hone in on is the freezing rain threat on the front side.  There are Freezing Rain Advisories issued for the coast from 3AM until 8AM and inland from 3AM until 11AM.  Our latest HD NAM model shows that  sometime between 5 AM and 8 AM at the coast roads will ice up with some freezing rain before conditions improve with warmer temperatures, and thus roads should be avoided.  Similarly, inland I will say 5 AM to 10 AM remain the most dangerous, but by 9 AM things should really be improving across the area as well.  Thus, across the entire region early morning travel will be compromised, lasting a little longer at the coast before the entire region becomes just wet by late morning as we then turn over to all rain, which gets heavier in the afternoon.

The heaviest rain has increasingly been pushed back in time as the low pressure center has trended slightly more west on our models, so now it looks like the heaviest rains will be between 4 and 8 PM across the area.  A low-topped squall line may form with an hour or so of very heavy rain as it moves through.  This is most likely between 6 and 8 PM as it moves from west to east.  As expected, however, winds will not be all that bad, with gusts only into the 20-30 mph range as the winds and stronger warm air advection occur further to our east.  It is mainly rain that I am concerned about, with anywhere from 1 to 1.75 inches of rain falling.  The precipitation does start early very lightly, but the steadier precipitation looks to move in around 11 AM.  It gets heavier through the afternoon, peaks in the early evening before ending abruptly, maybe even as a quick burst of snow, as cold air rushes in on the backside.  Rain should be out of the region by 10 PM at the latest.  Winds pick up again on the backside as they whisk in that colder air for Monday, though temperatures will still get up into the upper 30s.

In summary, travel at the coast between 3 and 8 AM is highly discouraged, as is travel inland from 3 to 10 AM.  After that, isolated urban flooding from periods of heavy rain are possible in the late afternoon/early evening before the rain dies down.  The main thing to watch for is that freezing rain, so be alert if awake early.  Otherwise, just take it a little slow tomorrow afternoon in some puddles and just hunker down for a day of some cold, heavy rain.

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