The below forecast looks to be verifying well thus far:
Northern half of New Haven County: 4-8 inches. Coastal portions of New Haven County and far inland portions of Fairfield County see 6-12 inches of snow, again increasing in amount as we get close to the coast. Inland Westchester and coastal Fairfield Counties see 8-16 inches of snow, while southern Westchester may see 10-18+ inches.
If there is any part of the forecast I am worried about it would be northern New Haven County, where we should be very close to the upper bound of that range. That also looks to be the case across coastal Fairfield and New Haven Counties, where we currently see on radar here a very strong band of snow moving in. There are some indications that the dry air is holding on as the heavier snow moves in, resulting in not quite as much snow reaching the surface, but these radar returns are extremely impressive.
Generally, the heaviest snow is expected to continue through 8-10 PM tonight, with anywhere from another 6-10 inches remaining possible across much of the region. The most recent HRRR continues to show the potential for Southern Wetchester to reach or exceed 18 inches of snow, as seen here. Moderate bands of snow are shown lingering through at least 11 PM tonight, and this is all additional snow falling after 8 AM, at which point we had a couple inches in Westchester and an inch or so across Fairfield. Isolated amounts in the heaviest banding of 20+ inches in Westchester do not appear out of the question even with the brief lull we are seeing, especially as that strong band near Bridgeport rotates around and settles there.
Overall, we will continue to track the latest banding to see where the heaviest snow sets up, but one strong band near Danbury and another near Bridgeport mean there could still be some small surprises from here even with short-range guidance generally supporting the going forecast.