Final Free Monday Storm Update

The final storm update has been made available for Premium subscribers, and you can purchase it here for $1.99 if interested, or can subscribe to the service and view all past content.  Below is a portion of updated Premium final forecast, while the previous free posts detail the other details of the forecast:

All of this continues to support patchy freezing rain breaking out inland as soon as 5 AM, and freezing drizzle possible down to the coast then around 5 or 6 AM.  If more precipitation reaches the surface, then roads and all surfaces could really become slick by then.  At the coast, there remains a chance that the main precipitation does not enter until 9 AM.  There remains strong model agreement that coastal areas remain below freezing through at least 10 or 11 AM, meaning that first round of steady rain falls with temperatures below freezing and immediately ices up on all surfaces.  The question past 10 or 11 AM is how quickly does the region warm up.  Again, if the RGEM model is right, the entire region goes over to rain by 1 PM, but if the RAP and even the HD NAM are right then patchy freezing rain could continue through the early afternoon.  I wish I had an indication as to which was more likely, but at this time I am not very confident.  Preliminary surface observations I have been combing through have indicated a slightly steadier south wind than I originally expected, which could be a signal that the cold erodes slightly faster.  Similarly, New Haven remains above the temperature I was expecting for this time, and New Haven County as a whole remains fairly warm in comparison, so I bet that county rises above freezing fairly quickly, likely by 10 AM or so.  The RAP has them then dropping back below 35 degrees around 3 PM as the surface low pressure center forms, however, which is also a possibility and could result for treacherous travel in the evening as well.




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