Brief Update on Wednesday Snow: Early Dismissal 5%, Closure 5%

We have some light snow coming to the region on Wednesday (tomorrow) and I was getting a bunch of questions so I just wanted to clear a few things up.  First, I do not expect any school impacts.  If every single weather model is wrong and the storm somehow finds a true moisture source, yes there could be a scenario where schools could be impacted and the storm is more significant, but right now I see absolutely no reason for any school to modify their schedule tomorrow.  I’m throwing up those percentages to cover myself should something go crazily wrong, and I guess the weather has done crazier things before, but really this looks straightforward and there is no reason for school impacts tomorrow.

What we have is half an inch to an inch of snow that is falling between 8 AM and 2 PM.  It looks like it will likely just be a burst of snow for an hour or two between 10 AM and noon though.  Temperatures will be very cold so the snow will stick on contact to everything and we will see snowfall ratios around 20:1.  With such low snowfall forecasts that means I am literally forecasting around 2 or 3 hundredths of an inch of liquid to fall, showing how moisture-starved this burst of snow is going to be.  Ratios could approach even higher amounts, with the National Weather Service calling for up to 30:1 ratios in areas, which would result in a few areas pushing an inch of snow.  Either way, this is a very fluffy snow that can be literally swept off decks and will just blow around on the surface and should not significant impact road conditions.  When snowing, just be sure to take it a little slower, and there should be no major impacts tomorrow.  Snow moves out by 2 PM at the latest, and attention then turns to what could be a potentially more impactful event early next week.

I will have a full update on that tomorrow, but for now know we are looking at a long-duration event with potential impacts to be felt Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  The storm looks to start as snow on Sunday, though freezing rain, sleet, and rain could all be involved Monday and Tuesday.  I am not sure the storm ever gets organized enough to result in heavy precipitation, but a long duration storm can have very different impacts and result in very difficult forecasts, so I am watching it very closely.  This also makes for very challenging school forecasts, as there is a chance districts will have to close multiple days and a chance that all schools open on time with no problems all 5 days next week (though I’m also watching another disturbance later next week too).  Overall, make sure to stay tuned as though the event tomorrow will barely be notable, we do have some potentially significant winter weather in the future.

One response to “Brief Update on Wednesday Snow: Early Dismissal 5%, Closure 5%

  1. Best weather forecast I have ever read. Keep up the good work!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>