In an email just sent out to Premium subscribers I highlighted the risk for more snow than was forecast across the area and have accordingly raised accumulation forecasts. The latest forecast is available below:
Light to moderate snow is breaking out right on time across the region. It will start light initially, though over the next hour or two we could get a couple of moderate bursts. From there it will still begin to pick up in intensity between 12 PM with steady moderate to briefly heavy snow until 4 PM, with lingering snow showers through 8 PM. Models overnight showed a slightly higher threat for bursts of heavy snow any time between 11:30 AM and 4 PM, with eastern and coastal regions the focus. High ratios may allow snow that does not seem particularly heavy to add up rather quickly. Snow should end by 9-10 PM across the region as the storm pulls out, though a couple models show a couple snow showers across New Haven through around 11 PM.
A snowfall gradient is still expected, though it may not be quite as sharp as previously expected. Snow to liquid ratios up to 20:1 continue to look possible with the storm moving through, which is why I am becoming increasingly concerned about moderate accumulations into Fairfild County. Later in the storm winds will pick up a bit so we could see some dendrite shattering more so by the coast (depending on exact snow growth regions) that may bring ratios down a bit, but at least 15:1 ratios seem reasonable throughout the entire storm.
The forecast has been tweaked with more location specificity. 5-8 inches of snow is expected in southeastern and coastal New Haven County, with 4-7 inches of snow expected across inland New Haven County and coastal and inland Fairfield County. Far inland Fairfield County (north of I-84) can expect to see 3-6 inches of snow, as can costal Westhchester County, while inland Westchester County will see 2-5 inches of snow. In this way the gradient is best reflecter, but overnight guidance shows less intense banding and moderate snow extending further to the west, increasing confidence that some of higher accumulations across New Haven County will be possible in Fairfield County as well. Recent short-range guidance has shown the possibility of widespread amounts even further west of 6-7 inches of snow, so a slight tweak higher may be needed as the storm develops, primarily because of just how light and fluffy the snow is going to be as it adds up quickly.