Latest modeling guidance continues to support my original fear that the large amount of cold, dry air is forcing the precipitation shield mainly to the south of the area. This means that although some snow may fall tonight, it likely won’t even accumulate to an inch or two in most areas. In fact, I see maybe a coating inland with maybe have an inch at the coast? There is a chance areas don’t even reach that because so much of the snow will end up falling as virga. So accordingly the delay chances have been lowered. The delay chances here are not based off of the forecasted conditions, because if the going forecast holds true of now only a coating-1 inch then there likely will not be a reason for any districts to delay. The only scenario under which any districts would need to delay is if there was a very dramatic shift to the northwest in the last few hours by the snow. Not any other way to put it really, and as impacts are lessening I won’t go in depth about it for Southwestern Connecticut. It’s likely going to just end up being some light snow falling between 3 and 6 AM tomorrow morning, so don’t be surprised to wake up tomorrow and see a little white on everything, but I do not expect any significant updates. I will have one last update at 11 PM if I see any reason to raise delay chances or if any new data comes in changing my opinion, but for now expecting generally a coating to an inch with MAYBE an inch possible in the furthest southeast areas that I forecast.
UPDATED: March 13, 4:15 PM
The latest forecast is available to the left. Another update may come late tonight should the forecast shift.
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