9 PM UPDATE: 100% Snow Day (still)

Almost all school districts currently in session have closed for tomorrow, and any that have not should in the next hour.  If not, they’ll wake up tomorrow and realize they have to.

I’m watching new data stream in on the latest RAP model and it continue to supports the going forecast of very heavy snow in the late morning with the changeover not coming until after noon.  My best guess is that around 1 PM the coast begins to see rain mix in and by 2 or 3 PM it goes over to almost all rain there.  Further inland it could take until 4 PM or maybe even longer.  The issue is the RAP has a warm bias in the longer range as it is typically too amplified with the pattern, and I trust the HRRR model more, but it only goes out 15 hours and is not yet to the point of mixing.

The back end remains very pronounced on latest modeling, and I think another 2-4 inches of snow could quickly fall in about a 3 hour period tomorrow overnight.  Nailing down exactly when that will be is quite hard, but somewhere in there will be some heavy snow and it could last until 5 or 6 AM.  That shows the strength of this low pressure to stick around and impact the region with snow for potentially more than 24 hours.

New modeling data is coming out now and I will be tweeting about it should there be any major forecast changes.  I’ll have another brief update at 10 PM, and they will continue hourly through midnight tonight.  Updates will continue on Twitter, so make sure to keep it here for the latest.

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