7:30 PM UPDATE: 35% Chance Delay TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4 (mainly inland)

I wanted to post a brief update on here to answer many of the questions that I have been getting on Twitter regarding delayed openings for schools tomorrow.  I do think there is a decent chance (35%, to be exact) that school districts delay tomorrow due to black ice.  I do not, however, think there is any chance or any good reason for a school district to close.  First of all, the storm is completely done.  Snow has moved on out and I am not even looking at flurries or anything tonight.  Partly cloudy skies will allow for some radiational cooling, which will help low temperatures into the mid to upper teens.  What this means is that black ice and generally icy conditions are expected, especially because of the very wet nature of the snow.  Even treated roads could be slipper in the morning because of the cold temperatures tonight, and I believe some districts may choose to delay just to allow their students and faculty extra time to get to school and allow some time for the sun to start melting some of the ice.

If I had to guess, it would be mainly inland districts that would delay tomorrow, as they have more of a history of delaying due to black ice.  They are generally more hilly and thus their roads are even more treacherous with residual ice, so the 35% delay number is mainly for inland districts, and honestly it may be even higher.  It is very difficult for me to accurately judge what the percent chance should be because this is not exactly a weather issue but rather a Public Works and road conditions specific issue, but I can say from experience that I do expect there to be some delayed openings tomorrow.  Again, no closures as there will not be any more snow and even though some amounts were in the 8+ inch range (though officially the max appears to be 7-8 I think), I believe towns will have no trouble clearing the roads in time for schools to open.  Those openings may just be slightly delayed.

I may have one more updated on the Wednesday storm later when the 0z modeling data comes in, but if not I will be constantly updating throughout the day tomorrow so make sure to stay tuned for that.  The going forecast I published earlier I remain very confident in.  Keep it here for the latest on all these weather impacts.

2 responses to “7:30 PM UPDATE: 35% Chance Delay TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 4 (mainly inland)

  1. Hi Jacob – Greenwich students start winter break on Friday and tons of families are scheduled to fly off to exotic places on Saturday. I will be interested in your thoughts on the potential snow this weekend which some professional forecasters are saying will be between 3 to 30 inches! SO not helpful to get such a forecast! As always, thank you. I enjoy your good work.

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