6:30 PM Update on Christmas Eve and Other Storm Potentials

We continue to monitor the Christmas Eve storm, which continues to look likely to bring multiple impacts to the region.  A Premium post from last night covered that, future snow storms, and a long-range forecast with natural gas implications and is available here.  20 hours later I want to pass along the summary of the forecast so everyone can remain ahead of this potential storm as it moves into the region.

CHRISTMAS EVE STORM: The Christmas Eve storm continues to look like a minor impact threat, but recent weather models have indicated that winds should not be as severe.  There is strong model agreement and little else to show, so I’ll just dive into what I continue to expect.  In general, today we can expect generally light rain in the evening.  Tuesday night there may even be a break in the rain before one batch of heavier rain moves through Wednesday morning, with maybe a late Wednesday morning lull followed by heavier rain Wednesday afternoon, evening, and overnight.  It continues to look like rain will end across the region between 6 and 9 AM, so that anyone sleeping in late on Christmas Day should wake up with the rain already having moved through.  The thinking for rain accumulations remains the same, with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches.  As for wind gusts, the expected winds have been lowered to widespread sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph inland and 35 mph at the coast.  These winds should be low enough that there should not be any major impacts or power outages across the region, though there could still be some plane delays at major airports due to the heavy rains and maybe some gusty winds inside the heavier rain bursts.  Travel impacts lessen rapidly on Christmas Day as focus turns to the next storm.

The main threat with this storm, however, is a potential squall line that could form late Wednesday night.  This squall line would likely move through between 4 and 7 AM Christmas morning, and could have some strikes of lightning and rumbles of thunder in it.  The worst impacts from this look to be along southeastern Connecticut and Long Island, but SWCT and SENY could still see some gustier winds, maybe to 45/50 mph inside this squall line, which the National Weather Service has highlighted in a recent Hazardous Weather Outlook.  I will be watching this closely, with continuous updates on the Premium page and free updates as necessary to keep everyone safe and prepared ahead of this storm.

DECEMBER 28TH-30TH: This continues to be the next storm threat to follow, and it is only 6 days or so out now.  On the Premium post I first run through what each of our models show, then analyze the upper level air pattern and the expected overall pattern in that timeframe, and then I’ll end with my expectations for this storm.  I do expect that this could be the first storm with real winter weather impacts down to the coast, though again models have been so poor at nailing down these threats this winter so far I really cannot say that with much confidence.  Still, models do agree on a snowy and exciting pattern (well, exciting if you like wintry weather) from December 28th through January 5th and maybe even beyond, which I’ll explain more in the long-range forecast.  More details on this storm threat will be available freely over the coming days, but it is broken down on the Premium page now.

DECEMBER 30/31: This is the next timeframe that our weather models have honed in on, with both the ECMWF and CMC showing decent chances of significant accumulating snow and the GFS also showing some light snow falling across the region.  I find this similarly likely to occur, mainly because this disturbance is the one that looks to move through before the coldest weather moves in for the first couple days of January.  It is far too early to know much more than that about this storm threat (one that looks to come late on the 30th with the bulk on the 31st), but with an NAO that looks to be bouncing back slightly positive and a volatile AO, I again think that this could be a very interesting storm threat, as I always believe that whenever the NAO moves through the neutral phase and flips that is when we need to watch for storms to find a way to move near the region.

Those are the storm threats through the next week or so that I am following, and I wanted to alert you of them so you could stay tuned, as the latter two both look like they could bring some wintry impacts.  Thus, it seems like the perfect time to sign up for SWCT/NY Premium, so you can stay ahead of these storm threats and see what travel they may impact, if there could be any specific implications in your life, and see what the pattern looks like longer range into January and February.  Or, if you have a weather buff in your family, or someone that just loves winter weather, this is a perfect opportunity to give them the gift of a subscription so they can get the most detailed daily discussions of weather as it impacts their life.  So consider subscribing here, and stay tuned for the latest storm analysis from these upcoming storms.


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