6 PM UPDATE: 25% Delay (coast) 20% Delay (inland) 0% Closure (everywhere)

Brief 6 PM update just to go over a few trends that I am seeing with the storm here.  First, the total accumulation amounts for the region has been revised downward yet again.  I see only half an inch of snow in some areas, especially inland, with maybe up to 2 inches at the immediate coast.  That could be a stretch in itself, as many places may struggle to get an inch.  It continues to look like this storm system is more and more suppressed, and that is what all of the very short range models are saying.  It’s amazing how what 48 hours ago looked set to be a direct hit turned out to be almost an entire miss for the region.  This is one of the few times I remember where my forecast 48 hours out busted this badly and the forecast changed this quickly, but such is the age we live in with the weather model technology we are using; at many times weather forecasting can appear to just be an educated guessing game, and in many ways it really is.

Most snow looks to fall generally between 2 and 7 AM, with the “heaviest” snow likely falling between 3 and 5 AM.  It’s during those couple hours that we will see any accumulation of the light, fluffy, high-ratio snow that will fall.  Should the 2-inch amounts be realized and snow not end until around 6 or 7 AM, we could be looking at isolated to scattered school delays, mainly along coastal SWCT.  However, I expect widespread amounts of around an inch, and given that it’s likely to end by 5 AM I expect that most districts will have no trouble opening on time and handling the small amount of snow.  There’s still a chance that the storm misses entirely and there is no snow at all for Southwestern Connecticut.  Either way, with no more than an inch or two possible, all schools will open and everyone should do their homework tonight.  Chances of delays continue to decrease as it looks like we will get less and less precipitation with the associated storm, but again a small jog north could give a few districts just enough snow for delays.  I’ll continue watching the short term weather models and current surface observations to keep you ahead of this nuisance snowfall overnight tonight and any potential impacts, so make sure to stay tuned!

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