5 PM UPDATE: 70% Delay, 30% Snow Day

Recent short range models have come into agreement: heavy rain will start between 10 and 11 PM tonight and will turn over to snow at around 1 AM, lasting until around 4 or 5 AM.  During this 3-4 hour burst of snow rates of up to 1-2 inches per hour are possible, quickly covering everything.  It looks like areas further west will be in more of the 4-5 inch range, while areas further east will be more in the 2-3 inch range, but a lot of this still depends on where exactly this banding sets up.

The most important trend for schools, though is that all snow ends by 5 AM, with maybe residual flurries lasting until 6 AM.  This should provide time for many districts to clean up the roads and open on time.  Does this mean your specific district cannot close?  No, in fact districts like Bridgeport and Stamford, where there are the worst salt/sand shortages, may have to close because roads will freeze over tonight.  But if properly treated, schools should be open to open on a delayed basis tomorrow.

Importantly, as of right now, I see almost no way that a school district opens on time.  With the snow not ending until 5 AM and an additional few inches coating everything, along with a freeze tonight following all the snow and rain, roads will be dangerous tomorrow morning, and I am predicting that all districts that do not have to close will delay.  The snow overnight tonight will likely be too much to have to open on time, and some districts may actually make the decision to delay tonight when looking at forecasts and current conditions across their towns.  Inland towns may pull out 2.5 or 3 hour delays so they have ample time to clean up roads while also getting a day of school in.  At the coast, normal 2 hour delays may be all that is necessary  For any school district that has a half day tomorrow, it is expected that they will close because I do not believe they would make kids go in for a delayed opening on a half day.

Now for the Saturday storm, models continue to trend stronger and stronger and the 500mb upper air pattern actually supports a fairly significant snow storm.  No model shows significant snowfall across the area yet, but they seem to be trending towards it, and up to 6+ inches may actually be in the cards for Saturday, even though right now I see a general 2-4.  I will be tracking that tonight and throughout the day tomorrow to keep you updated.  The next update will be around 8 PM this evening as I track this back end band and how it could impact schools tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

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