4:30 PM UPDATE: 50% Snow Day, 50% Delay

No changes to the snow day or delay outlook yet because of differing information coming from short range guidance.  Ending time has not become more clear just yet even as we move along with this storm.  In fact, very little convergence has occurred among data at this time.  End time still could be anywhere between 12 AM and 6 AM with models supporting either one of those solutions.  Either way, the heaviest snow will be over by 10 PM and we will only be seeing lighter snow after that into the early morning if any guidance is accurate.  This is why I am just not yet confident enough to forecast widespread snow days because of this storm.  I will have another update around 6 PM where I will take a look at new data and may be able to make an easier decision based on what accumulations are looking like then.

We are seeing a brief lull now and I want to see how long this lasts before I am confident enough snow will fall to cancel school tomorrow.  With the latest RAP model indicating that it will only be flurries with no accumulations falling after midnight I have become a little concerned about schools closing, as there may be enough time for roads to be cleared with just a delay in the lesser hit areas.  It all depends to how much snow falls over these next few hours and exactly where this coastal low pressure center forms, which I will continue to keep monitoring.  There isn’t much more to report on except that the accumulation forecast is on track and it is just the ending time that is giving me trouble, with snow expected to end between 4 and 5 AM across the area but accumulations likely less than an inch after midnight now.  A small jog west by the strongest surface low once it forms and we could see something different.  Stay tuned for the latest here.

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