11:30 PM UPDATE: 60% Snow Day (inland) 45% Snow Day (coast)

New data streaming in now is back to supporting the idea that a burst of heavier snow could start as early as 7 AM.  If this is the case, areas could have up to an inch of snow on the ground by 8 AM with moderate snow falling, and this could be enough to cancel schools.  The overall accumulation forecast remains the same, with 2-5 inches across the area and lower amounts near the coast, though timing is what is most questionable.  The HRRR has snow out of the area between 11 AM and noon, meaning that it doesn’t even turn to rain at the immediate coast because the warming would come just too late.  I think this may be a bit quick, but the point is there is a high level of uncertainty with this storm, which is why inland and coastal areas are both currently hovering around 50% in terms of snow days, as it is possible that conditions are ok for school in the morning almost everywhere, or that closures across the board will be necessary due to heavy snow between 7 and 8 AM.  This is one of the hardest decisions I’ve had to make because literally one hour in timing of the precipitation will make all the difference, and when a low pressure center that is yet to form is responsible for it then there is very low confidence in exactly when that precipitation will come, even though there is high confidence that it will come at some point tomorrow morning.

Thus, the going forecast remains for accumulations, and the snow day chances have been slightly bumped up yet again across the board as chances have increased for moderate snow to impact the region by 7 or 8 AM tomorrow.  The afternoon commute does not look to be an issue for anyone as temperatures are quick to rise above freezing tomorrow, it is the morning commute that I ma most concerned about, and with the snow at its worst between 8 and 10 AM there is no reason for delayed openings tomorrow, and even less for early dismissals still.  This all comes down to whether kids will be able to get to school safely with the school opening at its normal time tomorrow.  I think inland it is possible but not quite as likely at the coast, who tend to open more often than not.  Inland the accumulations may be high enough to impact the decisions as well, whereas at the coast I don’t see anyone getting more than 3 or maybe isolated areas approaching 4, though either a quicker storm or a chance to rain should keep that from happening and I see most areas right around the 2 inch mark maybe approaching 3 inches.

We have to watch this closely because it is such a narrow band creating a burst of snow here.  That’s why I’ve been focusing so much on exact timing and the snow day forecast has been this volatile.  This will be the final update of the evening, and I’ll be back to report on closings at 5 AM, as well as other last minute trends that may pop up.  Any district may close/open tomorrow, so be sure to do your homework, but I have a feeling that some do end up closing tomorrow.  It’s just a matter of how many.  Thanks for staying tuned and make sure to check back in tomorrow!

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