11 PM UPDATE: 85% Snow Day

Not much new to report on with the latest update.  New HRRR updates continue to come out showing a forecast that makes more sense with what is given but also backing off of some of the crazier snowfall totals that we had last time.  My only concern, and the only reason the chance is not any higher than 85%, is because of warm surface temperatures meaning that even though snow starts heavily around 7 AM it may not stick right away.  Though, after an hour or two of heavy snow, like always the snow should pull colder air to the surface and I expect all of SWCT to have sticking snow by 8 or 9 AM.  That is why I am quite confident schools will have to close, as that snow will then continue through at least 2 or 3 PM in the afternoon and accumulate to generally 4 or 5 inches across the entire SWCT area.

Thus the forecast holds: 3-6 inches at the coast and 2-5 inches once you get a few miles north of the Merritt.

The HRRR I believe has the best handle on the storm as it shows the most intense points generally having an inch per hour snow or so.  Don’t think it gets much heavier than that, but snow at that rate can cover roads as well.  RAP I still think is a little overdone trying to give coastal areas over 6 inches of snow, though the radar does show a very strong snow system.  Really the only variable here is the warm surface temperatures, which as I’ve explained due to dynamics I do not expect to significantly hinder accumulations.  With both a dangerous commute to school and a dangerous commute from school, schools closing are a good bet, and I honestly do not think it will be that hard a decision for superintendents tomorrow morning.  Winter Weather Advisory for 3-5 inches goes into effect at 5 AM, and with the heaviest snow expected during school, there are just too many variables to open schools I believe.  That’s it for this storm, I’ll be up at 5 AM to report on school closures and I’ll be posting tomorrow breaking down the storm as it happens and also focusing in on the Wednesday storm threat, which I believe will impact schools as well.  Keep it here and on Twitter for the latest local storm coverage.

One response to “11 PM UPDATE: 85% Snow Day

  1. Great forecasting on this storm. I LOVE getting your postings when these storms are in the wings. They are informative, smart and your presentation is pitch perfect. Thank you so much.

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