10 PM UPDATE: 75% Delay, 15% Closure (inland) 45% Delay (coast)

10 PM update is here, and based on what I am seeing with road conditions inland, I am upping the delay chances there to 75%, and I expect most if not all inland districts to delay.  There may be one or two that do not delay, but most already have, and honestly I would be surprised if one did not because a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect until 10 AM tomorrow (though I suspect they may have it expire a little early).  Also, I added in a chance of closure in case a district or two is not able to clear the roads by 9 AM.  With the Advisory lasting until 10 AM, there is a slight chance that a district or two will need to close as roads will just remain so slick tomorrow, but I have a feeling that districts will do everything in their power to open and not lose another day off the end of the year.  There is even a chance that those 3-hour delays end up making an appearance again, and some districts may be waiting to use those, which is why they have not announced delays ahead of time.

Along the coast the decision is much harder.  Bridgeport has already delayed, but that is because they are running low on salt and they have been delaying quite easily this year.  I do not expect widespread delays on the coast, though it could be a district by district thing.  Westport, Fairfield, Darien, and Greenwich all have track records of not delaying easily the day after storms, and I would not be surprised if they all opened on time.  After the fiasco in Westport, they might choose to delay, though.  Overall, I think conditions will be marginal for delays at the coast, as temperatures will be quite cold but if all roads are properly treated districts MAY be able to open on time.  I’ve never been one for advocating extra risks, and delays do not make a significant difference in the long run anyways, but these districts don’t like to call them unless they are absolutely necessary.  So we’ll see, I expect most of Fairfield County will delay, but I’m not confident that most/everyone along the coast will so it is not forecasted at this time.  Still, every district has a chance so definitely be sure to check tomorrow morning.

With regards to next week, I said I would briefly mention a few storm threats that I am watching.  The storm Sunday into Monday continues to look light to moderate.  There is about a 30% chance that something significant comes out of it, with a 50% chance of more than a few inches and a 20% chance that it is so insignificant SWCT gets less than a few inches.  With the models all jumping around it is too early to know, as the storm before the last one the models all jumped towards a snowier solution 48-60 hours ahead of time with little advanced warning.  None of them show anything here either, but I will continue to keep an eye on it and keep you updated.

There is also another storm threat next Wednesday that I am watching.  It has a slightly similar setup to the storm from today, though it is far too early for much more than the idea that more wintry weather could be on the way for midweek next week as well.  I’ll keep you ahead of this storm and the one on Sunday/Monday, so make sure to keep it here for the latest.

4 responses to “10 PM UPDATE: 75% Delay, 15% Closure (inland) 45% Delay (coast)

  1. It is a marvelous idea to have such a detailed forecast! BUT, I would like to see these firecasts updated MUCH more often. Tha latest one is over 14 hours old!

  2. Wow – I think that Jacob updates these incredibly timely – remember he is busy at college and does this out of the kindness of his heart for free and we all benefit tremendously.

    I do have a question for you Jacob. Debating whether to allow my son at college in PA to drive home for the weekend as I am concerned about the snowstorm on Sunday and that he would either get stranded or have a dangerous, difficult journey back on Sunday late afternoon/evening. Any thoughts?

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