This forecast was sent out to Premium subscribers just past 1 AM updating on the potential for more snow/sleet to mix in with the storm. The update is now shared below:
Model guidance tonight has continued recent westward shifts with the storm system overnight into tomorrow. Light snow will break out across the region in the next few hours if it has not already, and by 4 AM steady snow is expected. Heavy snow is expected by 5 or 6 AM that will continue through the morning.
Most model guidance shows a high chance of mixing with sleet, freezing rain, or even rain sometime between 9 AM and 1 PM tomorrow. This will be at the peak of the storm and limit overall snowfall accumulations. Recent estimates have me looking more at the 8-16 inch range across coastal areas where we mix earlier and 10-18 inches further inland where snow holds on longer. The storm between 2-5 PM likely ends as a burst of snow as well as the back end moves through. However, from the late morning into the early aftenoon a mix of sleet/feezing rain/rain is quite likely to mix in with the snow, limiting overall snowfall accumulations.
The result is that I see current National Weather Service forecasts as a bit overdone for the region giving this recent mixing risk. Additionally, some icy conditions could easily linger into Wednesday, but lower accumulations lessen the risk of significant impacts lingering into Wednesday. The risk for serious travel impacts from wintry weather and wind tomorrow still remain, but a chance to other wintry weather may keep it from being as serious.
Another update will come tomorrow morning updating on the risk of lingering travel and school impacts into Wednesday. The forecast is a bit lower confidence as models are divded as to whether we turn more to freezing rain or sleet. Both will make travel terrible tomorrow afternoon into the evening, but the impacts from there are more uncertain.