10 PM UPDATE: Snow Day 80%

Snow day chances are raised yet again in the 10 PM update to 80%, meaning I believe there is a 80% chance that conditions persist tomorrow that should result in snow days.  The final update will come at 11 PM and be brief, but there isn’t too much to cover here as the timing and many details of the storm are finally coming into place.  Snow continues to look to start between 6 and 7 AM and be heavier by 8 AM with the heaviest shortly after that.  Between 11 AM and 12 PM intensity drops off a little bit, though it will waiver from light to moderate through 4 or 5 PM quite possible.  That’s the main reason why the snow day chance has continued to rise again and has risen so dramatically, as not only will the morning commute be bad but the evening commute should be bad as well.

I also remain fairly confident in the forecast of 3-6 inches across the coast with more like 2-5 inches further inland.  There remains a small chance it busts high, as the NAM shows up to 7 or 8 inches by the coast, but I expect Long Island gets the heaviest snow and we do not quite get into the best banding.  Plus, the latest RAP and HRRR have started to back off their crazy totals for the area and are coming back into line with everything else.  I expect most areas along the coast get around 5 inches of snow, still a very respectable amount and the timing is such that it really should close schools, but likely not as major as Wednesday or potentially next weekend.

The period of intense snowfall looks to be quite intense though, with snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hour still possible with that heavy, wet snow.  This will still make roads dangerous, though treated roadways will not be horrible tomorrow.  It’s more the untreated roadways that I would be most concerned about.  Either way, travel tomorrow morning or early afternoon is not advised unless necessary, tomorrow evening things should start to improve a little bit.  Then attention of course turns to Wednesday, which looks like a likely delay for all school districts if they don’t straight up close.

That’s really it for now.  Another brief update coming at 11 PM with any new changes, but I’m feeling fairly confident in what I have.  Schools should close and I don’t think it should be too hard a call unless there are major changes over the next few hours.  Keep it here as I keep an eye out for anything out of the ordinary with this storm.

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One response to “10 PM UPDATE: Snow Day 80%

  1. You called this one, Jacob! Well done!

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